Is Net Zero Carbon Possible by 2050?

Some scientists believe that the current approach to zero carbon emissions is misleading and that if we continue as we currently are, we won’t actually achieve net zero by 2050. So, is net zero possible? Yes, but it may require a change in attitudes, as we explore in this blog.

‘Burn now, pay later’

The concept of net zero, or at least how it is currently understood, could lead to ‘burn now, pay later’ attitudes according to a group of climate scientists. The need to curb emissions immediately is pressing and we should not be distracted from this by the prospect of technology that can remove carbon from the atmosphere.

A complete shock, no one thought limiting to 1.5°C was possible.

The idea of net zero is great in principle, they argue, but it helps to “perpetuate a belief in technological salvation and diminishes the sense of urgency surrounding the need to curb emissions now”.

Are net zero and the 1.5°C global warming limit possible?

The agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 C has been doubted by climate scientists because of this faith in using technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere, rather than solely focusing on slashing emissions.

Interestingly, the authors of the article mentioned earlier described hearing other climate scientists reference the Paris Agreement as “a complete shock, no one thought limiting to 1.5°C was possible”.

In the early 2000s, the idea of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) became popular. This is technology that could remove the carbon dioxide from coal-fired power stations and then store the captured carbon deep underground indefinitely. However, there were (and still are) concerns over how widely this would be implemented because of the costs involved.

Later, the attention shifted to a new technological approach: BECCS (Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage). This technology involves replacing coal at power stations with ‘replaceable’ biomass such as wood, crops and agricultural waste and storing the carbon dioxide created when they are burned underground.

This combines the fact that trees can be used as ‘carbon sinks’ while they are growing with their potential for generating electricity once burned. This technology was seen as very important at the 2015 climate conference in Paris. However, this is now understood to be limited due to the vast resources it would need to run, namely between 0.4 and 1.2 billion hectares of land which is 25% to 80% of all the land currently under cultivation.

Direct air capture is another option that has been considered as a more viable alternative. This involves machines that directly suck carbon dioxide from the air and it can then be stored geologically or reused.

However, once again it has exorbitant costs and energy demand so is unlikely to be deployed at scale.

There is no clever way out

The point that these climate scientists are trying to make is that these types of technologies should only be used as a last resort and shouldn’t be considered as a key component of a strategy to limit global warming. While these new and innovative technologies are undoubtedly exciting, problems emerge when we try to use them on a large scale.

Net zero still might be possible by 2050 but the only way to achieve it is to radically cut greenhouse gas emissions and this action needs to happen immediately.

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