Is the Paris Agreement Working?

We take a look at the progress that has been made on the 2015 Paris Agreement promises in light of COP26 and whether the Paris Agreement is working, as well as the new pledges that countries are taking to tackle the climate crisis.

What is the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016.

The agreement was to limit global temperatures to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels and “pursue efforts” to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C.

Amongst other points, the Paris Agreement also laid out a promise that developed countries would provide financial assistance to developing countries in order to fund climate resources.

Has the Paris Agreement been working?

Currently, the world is not on track to limit warming and many nations have been reported to be on course to miss Paris targets.

In 2019, for example, a report by a panel of climate scientists found that the majority of the carbon emission reduction pledges for 2030 that 184 countries made under the Paris Agreement aren’t nearly enough to keep global warming well below 2°C.

A recent report by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) suggested that, if we don’t cut emissions, the 1.5°C limit could be reached in around a decade, and the threshold will most likely be reached by 2040 in all scenarios.

Indeed, the promise made to help developing countries with climate funding by providing $100bn annually by 2020 has not been met. In fact, a recent expert report for the United Nations said that this goal would not be reached until 2023.

New targets will be submitted ahead of COP26 and, at COP26, countries will analyse whether the targets set at the Paris Agreement have been met and what is going right and wrong.

What new agreements have been made at COP26?

Whether or not the Paris agreement is working, it is clearly time for some new pledges and agreements to be made to update our climate action plan. This is where COP26 comes in.

At the time of writing, the following pledges and agreements have been made:

• More than 130 countries have signed an agreement to reverse deforestation. This crucially includes Brazil, who have not signed previous agreements of this kind.
• A group of high-income countries has also pledged $12 billion in public finance for forest protection between 2021 and 2025.
• A commitment has been made by more than 90 nations (representing two-thirds of the global economy) to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. Reducing methane emissions is thought to be very important for reducing global heating in the short term. However, this agreement does not include China, India or Russia.
• India has stated an intention to generate half its electricity from renewables by 2030 and achieve net zero emission status by 2070.
• A non-binding pledge to phase out existing coal-fuelled power plants and stop the construction of new ones has been signed by 46 countries, including the UK. However, this pledge does not include Australia, India, China or the US.
• More than 450 organizations in the financial sector – including banks, fund managers and insurance companies – in 45 countries have pledged to move US$130 trillion of funds under their control into investments where the recipient is committed to net-zero emissions by 2050.

It is likely that more pledges will be made as COP26 continues and negotiations are underway.

We are hopeful that the climate alarm is sounding more loudly than it was in 2015. Although promises made in the Paris Agreement aren’t yet being met, these new pledges do show some steps are being made in the right direction and there are still reasons for optimism.